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Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

Rizwana Siddiqui and Abdul Razzaq Kemal

No 2006:1, PIDE-Working Papers from Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

Abstract: This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks-trade liberlisation and a decline in remittances from abroad-on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reducation in the absesnce of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and ruralhouseholds. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberlisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduced welfare in urban households but rural households still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. the combined shock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than for households in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and reduction in poverty level in rural households in less than the welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberlisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberlisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the posve impact of trade liberlisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances. It shows that teh decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in pakistan.

Keywords: Trade; Remittances; Poverty; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F16 I32 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages.
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-dev and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21) Track citations by RSS feed

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http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper%20Series%202006-1.pdf First Version, 2006 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Remittances, trade liberalisation, and poverty in Pakistan: The role of excluded variables in poverty change analysis (2006) Downloads
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