The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan
Henna Ahsan and
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Hafsa Hina: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
Henna Ahsan: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
Hania Afzal: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
No 2022:11, PIDE-Working Papers from Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
Yield spread is positively linked with future economic expansion to a certain extent, and it has been observed that an inverted yield curve is an indication of recession. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of yield spread (calculated as the difference between the weighted average rates of return on 5-year deposits and the 3-month rates of return) on the economic activity of Pakistan while incorporating other macroeconomic factors as well.
Keywords: ARDL; Pakistan; Recession; Yield Spread (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 E3 E4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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