Ukraine's Regional Economic Growth and Analysis of Regional Disparities
Svitlana Maksymenko ()
No 6053, Working Paper from Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh
Is here evidence that economic growth reduces poverty in Ukraine's regions which lag in industrial and agricultural development? To answer this question and analyze medium-range growth prospects, we build an econometric model consisting of four blocks - industry, agriculture, construction, and services - for all administrative regions of Ukraine. After adjusting a baseline 2015-2017 forecast for a structural break caused by a fall in production and applying exponential smoothing technique, we identify the top and bottom regional performers in different sectors of the economy. From the policy analysis perspective, we find that the rise in industrial production does not likely affect the level of poverty in the bottom regions. We also find that it is the agricultural growth that could potentially reduce poverty there. The paper discusses some alternative scenarios and development goals for a reduction in entrenched rural poverty in Ukraine.
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