Economia não registada em Portugal

Oscar Afonso and Nuno Gonçalves

OBEGEF Working Papers from OBEGEF - Observatório de Economia e Gestão de Fraude, OBEGEF Working Papers on Fraud and Corruption

Abstract: This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of the volume of the Non-Observed Economy (ENR) in Portugal, by estimating, based on MIMIC models (multiple indicators multiple causes), its path in the period 1977- 2008. Given, on the one hand, the infl uence of the tax burden, the burden of regulation and the evolution of the labour market and, on the other hand, its impact on monetary, labour-market and production indicators, it is estimated that the weight of ENR in the offi cial GDP in Portugal has evolved since the 19%, in 1977, up to 23%, in 2008. In particular, it is observed that after the fall in the period 1977-1982, the ENR showed an upward trend in the subsequent period, which has stabilized around 21%, since 1994. However, from the end of 2007, there is again an increasing pattern. Finally, results show that the growth of ENR in Portugal tends to positively affect the growth of the official economy.

Keywords: Non-Observed Economy; fiscality; regulation; model MIMIC; Portugal. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C39 H10 H26 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2009-10
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