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Histerese versus Taxa Natural do Desemprego no Brasil e regiões metropolitanas- novas evidências de quebras estruturais e raiz unitária

Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragon, Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza and Fernanda Leite Santana

No 14, Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) from Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba

Abstract: This paper investigates if the dynamic behavior of unemployment rates from Brazil and six metropolitan areas is more consistent with the natural rate hypothesis or the hypothesis of hysteresis. Initially, we use the procedures proposed by Perron and Yabu (2009) Kejriwal and Perron (2010) to verify the existence and number of structural breaks in the trend of the series analyzed. Then the stationarity of the unemployment rate is verified through the unit root tests presented by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009). In general, the results indicate the existence of multiple breaks in level and trend of unemployment rates in Brazil and regions. For the period 1980-6-2002-12, tests reject the unit root hypothesis only to unemployment rates in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro. In turn, the period 2003-1-2013-3, the results are favorable to the natural rate hypothesis in Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro and Salvador, and the hypothesis of hysteresis in Belo Horizonte, Recife and São Paulo. Finally, the results of unit root tests point to the stochastic convergence of relative unemployment rates.

Date: 2013
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