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COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy

Christian Pinshi ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The uncertainty of COVID-19 seriously disrupts the Congolese economy through various macroeconomic channels. This pandemic is influencing the management of monetary policy in its role as regulator of aggregate demand and guarantor of macroeconomic stability. We use a Bayesian VAR framework (BVAR) to provide an analysis of the COVID uncertainty shock on the economy and the monetary policy response. The analysis shows important conclusions. The uncertainty effect of COVID-19 hits unprecedented aggregate demand and the economy. In addition, it undermines the action of monetary policy to soften this fall in aggregate demand and curb inflation impacted by the exchange rate effect. We suggest a development of unconventional devices for a gradual recovery of the economy.

Keywords: Uncertainty; COVID-19; Monetary policy; Bayesian VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E51 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Working Paper: COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy (2020) Downloads
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