Type I and Type II Error Probabilities in the Courtroom

Shin Kanaya and Luke Taylor

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Abstract We estimate the likelihood of miscarriages of justice by reframing the problem in the context of misclassified binary choice models. The estimator is based on new nonparametric identification results, for which we provide methods to empirically test the key identifying assumptions and alternative identification schemes for when these checks fail. Blacks are found to have both a higher probability of conviction when innocent and a higher probability of acquittal when guilty, relative to whites. We go on to show that this seemingly contradictory result is, in fact, consistent with a model where both police and judges discriminate against blacks.

Keywords: Miscarriages of justice; Nonparametric identification; misclassification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C25 K14 K41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:100217

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