Economía de Galicia tras el COVID-19: prospectiva de escenarios

Economy of Galicia after COVID-covid-19: prospective forecastings

Fernando González Laxe, Jose Maria Da Rocha Alvarez, José Francisco Armesto Pina, Patricio Sánchez-Fernández and Santiago Lago-Peñas

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This work estimates the impact of COVID-19 in the year 2020, drawing possible recovery scenarios in the medium term. For this purpose, two methodologies are combined: on the one hand, it anticipates the quarterly evolution throughout 2020 of the 30 branches of activity; on the other, scenario simulation is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model that anticipates the reaction of an economy to an exogenous shock. The results for the Galician economy show that the contraction in economic activity ranges between 8.5% of GDP in an optimistic scenario and 12.7% in a pessimistic one.

Keywords: COVID-19; economic impact; forecasting; GDP; Galicia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A10 C53 E00 E01 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05, Revised 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Informe de Conxuntura Socioeconómica de Galicia I.2(2020): pp. 1-20

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100483/1/MPRA_paper_100483.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:100483

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().