Effects of EU-Mercosur trade agreement on bilateral trade: the role of Brexit

Eduardo Sanguinet and Augusto Alvim

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This article aims to assess the impact of the EU-Mercosur Agreement on the Brazilian economy using the Computable General Model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study proposes two sets of simulations – one with the United Kingdom as a member of the EU and the other without being a member, according to Brexit context. There is evidence of positive effects on foreign trade and on the welfare level in Brazil, with emphasis on manufactured goods and the grains of crops. The EU consolidates its presence in global trade. The results show that Mercosur benefits Brazilian foreign trade, making it a strategic partner at the regional level. It is concluded that Brexit can reduce Brazilian gains in the EU-Mercosur agreement, being important the discussion about the creation of another agreement involving the United Kingdom.

Keywords: Policy analysis; GTAP; Brexit; Brazil; Mercosur. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F13 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103010/1/MPRA_paper_102995.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Effects of EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement on bilateral trade: the role of Brexit (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:103010

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().