EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?

Ardiana Alifatussaadah, Anindya Diva Primariesty, Agus Mohamad Soleh and Andriansyah Andriansyah

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Since introduced by Giannone et al. (2008), GDP nowcasting models have been used in many countries, including Indonesia. Variables to select usually include housing and construction, income, manufacturing, labor, surveys, international trade, retails and consumptions. Interestingly, fiscal variables are excluded even though government expenditure is an integral part of the basic GDP identity. By employing the Bok et al. (2018)’s quarter-to-quarter real GDP growth nowcasting technique, this paper is aimed at testing the usefulness of inclusion of fiscal variables, in addition to 61 non-fiscal variables, in nowcasting Indonesia GDP. The results show, even though based on the fact that fiscal data have low correlation coefficients to GDP, the inclusion of fiscal data may help to produce a better early estimate of GDP growth.

Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model; Indonesian GDP; Nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 H60 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-08-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105252/1/MPRA_paper_105252.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:105252

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105252