Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth

Kaixing Huang ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Declining fertility is among the most salient features of global demography. By examining the lagged effects of fertility on the economic growth of 164 countries over the last half-century, this study found that the effect of a fertility decline lasts for more than three decades and that the long-run average effect is strongly negative for most countries. This finding was confirmed by using the plausibly exogenous fertility declines from the global family planning campaign since the mid-1960s. Within-country evidence from China’s one-child policy also confirmed this finding. Therefore, secular fertility declines represent a strong force driving down global economic growth.

Keywords: Secular fertility declines; economic growth; birth control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-11-03, Revised 2021-04-03
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106977/1/MPRA_paper_106977.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109350/1/MPRA_paper_109350.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:106977

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