Model trimestrial de Prognoză a PIB-ului Republicii Moldova

Quarterly GDP Forecast Model of the Republic of Moldova

Zinovia Toacă and Denis Vîntu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The purpose of the present paper is to describe a model of quarterly GDP forecast, categories of uses, in accordance with the development priorities of the Republic of Moldova in the medium term. The achievement of the main purpose requires to draw up the tasks, among which: - Conceptual approach of time series, with reference to the use of ARIMA technique for estimating the time series; - Economic analysis of the categories of uses, subcomponents of GDP; - Studying time series, using method of indices, where the following indicators were used as: growth rate, structure, degree of influence and influence; - Forecast of categories of uses, for the same reference period 2019-2020 Actuality of the research - Use of the ARIMA technique; - Using econometric package Eviews for estimating and developing the macroeconometric model. Scientific and methodological approaches described in this paper will serve as scientific support for the Ministry of Economy in the process of developing their own economic scenarios and forecasting options. Research methods: identifying trends in economic development; diagnostic analysis; economic forecasts scientifically substantiated, ARIMA methods, regression analysis of time series.

Keywords: Forecast; ARIMA; general domestic product; Student test; Jarque-Bera; Fischer. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C22 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-10-10, Revised 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
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Published in International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices „Economic Growth in Conditions of Globalization: welfare and social inclusion” The 14th Edition.I(2019): pp. 68-77

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