Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak
Jakub Rybacki and
Michał Gniazdowski
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecast errors of Polish professional forecasters under the COVID-19 crisis in 2020—based on the Parkiet competition. This analysis shows that after the initial disruption related to imposed lockdown in March and April, commercial economists were capable of lowering their forecasts errors of the industrial production and retail sales. On the other hand, the far worse performance has been seen in the case of the market variable; either the size of errors or the disagreement were elevated throughout the entirety of 2020. Furthermore, long-term forecasts that were produced during the first year of the pandemic have been characterized with visible inconsistencies (i.e., projections of economic growth were similar when forecasters either assumed a strong increase in unemployment or when they did not).
Keywords: GDP forecasting; Labor Market forecasts; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac, nep-ore and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107682/1/MPRA_paper_107682.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:107682
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().