The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Lefteris Tsoulfidis () and Persefoni Tsaliki

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements.

Keywords: Long recession; secular stagnation; pandemic; long cycles; institutional changes; disruptive innovations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B5 D33 E1 N12 O51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea, nep-hme and nep-mac
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:107737

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