The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic

Lefteris Tsoulfidis () and Persefoni Tsaliki

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: ABSTRACT In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations

Keywords: Long recession; secular stagnation; pandemic; long cycles; institutional changes; disruptive innovations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B5 D33 E1 N12 O51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-hme, nep-mac and nep-pke
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