GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA

Jamile Youssef, Nermeen Ishker and Nour Fakhreddine

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the vastest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the three countries Gross Domestic Product is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980 - 2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three countries for the upcoming five years.

Keywords: ARIMA Model; GDP; forecasting; GCC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 O1 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-for, nep-isf and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:108912

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