Relația dintre inflație, rata dobânzii, șomaj și creșterea economică

Denis Vîntu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper presents a quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted macro econometric data model (MDM). This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening understanding of the functioning of market economy. Five key features of the model are highlighted. First, it treats the Republic of Moldova as a small and open economy. Second, it is a medium sized model which, while detailed enough for most purposes, is nonetheless sufficient small to be manageable in the context of forecasting and simulation exercises. Third, the model is designed to have a long run equilibrium consistent with classical economic theory, while its short run dynamics are demand driven. Fourth, the current version of the MDM is mostly backward-looking, i.e. expectations are reflected via the inclusion of lagged variables. Finally, the MDM uses a quarterly frequency data, allowing for a richer treatment of the dynamics, and is mostly estimated on the basis of historical data (rather than calibrated). The paper comprises elements of stochastic long run simulations. The relationship between: inflation, interest rate, unemployment and economic growth is significant.

Keywords: Republic of Moldova, macroeconometric modelling, open and small economy; inflation; interest rate; unemployment; economic growth; classical economics; Keynesian economics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 E21 E30 E41 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10-16, Revised 2021-09-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
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Published in International Scientific-Practical Conference edition XV.I(2021): pp. 193-197

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