Méthodes quantitatives et prévisions économiques en période de crise. Intérêt et limites

Quantitative methods and economic forecasts in times of crisis. Interest and limits

Mohamed Bouzahzah

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper is a reflection on the use of quantitative methods to forecast the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the subject of a communication at the webinar organized by the FSJES of Salé (Mohammed V University - Rabat) on June 23, 2020 under the theme "Quantitative methods and economic modeling to the test of Covid-19". It is actually about the predictive power of economic models in general and during the crisis of COVID-19 more specifically. It addresses questions about the interest, relevance and limitations of these forecasting exercises. It answers them by examining the first works published during the pandemic. Indeed, a few papers, among the most cited by the Google Scholar engine, are selected to show how economists adapted their econometric and forecasting models (CGEIM, DSGE, etc.) and which assumptions were used for forecasting purposes.

Keywords: Quantitative methods; economic forecasting; COVID-19; Morocco (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A11 B00 C00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113227/1/MPRA_paper_113227.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:113227

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().