Ciclos económicos, inversión y rentabilidad del capital en Colombia: un análisis de series de tiempo

Economic cycles, investment and profits in Colombia: a time-series analysis

Carlos Duque Garcia

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to identify the average cycles of the Colombian economy between 1967-2019 and to evaluate, through a time series analysis, investment, average rate of profit and mass of profits as their determinants. Our analytical framework is based on Marx's economic theory where the profitability of capital determines investment and, consequently, the dynamics of output. From the cyclical deviations of real GDP, estimated with the Hodrick-Prescott filter, six cycles with an average duration of 8.3 years were identified. Employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, and Granger causality tests, evidence was found in favor of Marx's hypothesis: both the rate of profit and the mass of profits determine investment while this, in turn, is co-determined by the business cycle. On the contrary, no evidence was found that investment determines either the rate of profit or the mass of profits. Thus, for the Colombian economy, the dynamics of the profitability of capital is the key to the business cycle.

Keywords: Ciclo económico; Tasa de ganancia; Masa de beneficios; Modelos VAR; Cycles; Rate of profit; Mass of profits; VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B51 C32 E32 N16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-his, nep-hme and nep-mac
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