Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator

Dimitris Anastasiou, Konstantinos Drakos and Panayotis Kapopoulos ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We introduce a novel tourism-specific business expectations sentiment index and explore whether it can operate as a leading indicator for international tourist arrivals in Greece. Using monthly data spanning 2002-2021 and employing a VAR model, we document that this newly introduced tourism-specific business expectations serves as a leading indicator, whose higher levels foreshadow increased demand for international travel. We also find that its inclusion in a tourism-oriented model increases forecasting accuracy, which can be utilized by travel agent businesses, local government officials and policymakers in their efforts to predict tourist arrivals in Greece.

Keywords: Leading Indicator; Expectations; Tourist Arrivals; VAR; Greece (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tur
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:113860

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