Predicción anticipada de agregados macroeconómicos con indicadores no contemporáneos: el caso de EMAE

Nowcasting of macroeconomic aggregates with non-contemporary indicators: the case of EMAE

Luis Frank

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The method used by BCRA to anticipate quarterly GDP is extended to forecast of the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) but with variables released in the first 15 to 20 days of the EMAE data to be predicted. This procedure is then extended ti situations in which more than one set of early variables although not contemporary. The necessary formulas for a point forecast and to find statistically significant differences between consecutive predictions with different sets of early variables are also deduced.

Keywords: EMAE; nowcasting; principal components (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08-25
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