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Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S

Gustavo Gomez-Sorzano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, alternation in power, social, and political unrest overseas as wars, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the country. The cyclical component estimated shows that, 9/11 2001 terrorist attacks occurred, two years after the end of the last declining cycle of 1994-1999. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns, that terrorist attacks in U.S., soil from 1923 to 2004, historically occur in, and around the vicinity of the turning points, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting cyclical terrorist murder, and terrorist attacks.

Keywords: Keywords: United States; Colombia; murder; Beveridge-Nelson; business cycle; decomposition; time-series; domestic terrorism; cyclical terrorist murder; cyclical terrorist attacks; cyclical terrorist murder and attacks indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: K42 O51 N41 K14 C13 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06-13, Revised 2006-11-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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