Contributions relatives des chocs de demande agrégée et d’offre agrégée aux fluctuations de la croissance réelle en zone CEMAC

Relative contributions of aggregate demand and supply shocks to business cycles fluctuations in the CEMAC subregion

Francis Ngomba Bodi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are channeled by fiscal policy. As a result, supply shocks can displace the demand curve. This facts justifies our original econometric approach, which subdivides each shock into two types : idiosyncratic shocks and common shocks, and builds on Pedroni’s panel SVAR analysis framework (2013), to which we add the proposed identification conditions by Cover, Enders and Hueng (2006). These take into account the possibility of a correlation between aggregate supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks. Three main results are obtained. First of all, aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks have the same influence on growth in the short and medium term. This shows the existence of a certain flexibility in the scope of the monetary authorities. Moreover, shocks a!ecting all CEMAC economies (common shocks) are almost non-existent. Finally, the correlations of supply and demand shocks are non-zero and invalidate the identification conditions of Blanchard and Quah (1989).

Keywords: supply shocks; demand shocks; , monetary policy, growth; variance decomposition; macroeconomic fluctuations; panel SVAR; shocks correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C33 C51 E31 E52 E58 E61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-10-02
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