Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19

Thoughts about the costs of the current crisis in the Cameroonian economy linked to COVID-19

Francis Ngomba Bodi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this reflection is to assess the effects of the current crisis on the Cameroonian economy faced with five shocks : (i) an epidemiological shock, (ii) a supply shock (iii) an internal demand shock, (iv) an oil shock, (v) a foreign demand shock. The joint occurrence of these shocks could cost 6 % of GDP in 2020, with a doubling of the budget deficit and private investment which will not recover to its pre-crisis level before the end of 2021. In order to mitigate the effects In view of this recession, it is important for the government, in order to maintain demand at a certain level, to support companies, particularly industrial ones, so that they can maintain a certain level of employment and withstand the crisis. It will require an increase in public debt, the burden of which can be reduced by a purchase of government securities by the central bank. This is the prerequisite for a major economic rebound in 2021-2022. For the latter to materialize, the phenomenon of credit rationing (amplified in period of crisis) could be mitigated by adopting a dynamic bank’s provisioning method for non performing loans and by the effective application of the countercyclical capital buffer.

Keywords: covid-19; DSGE model; pandemic economic effects; cameroon; supply shock; keynesian shock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E52 H3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
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