Estimation des élasticités du commerce extérieur dans des économies en développement riches en ressources naturelles: le cas des pays de la CEMAC

Estimation of trade elasticities in resources rich developing countries: the case of CEMAC countries

Francis Ngomba Bodi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to estimate price and demand trade elasticities of Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC). This work is done in a context where these countries, heavily dependents of natural resource rent, are facing a crisis due to the 2014 oil shock. This external shock and its consequences on the external equilibrium on CEMAC countries has revived the debate on the parity of CFA Franc and its economic consequences. By using Bayesian VAR and Bayesian panel regression techniques on annual data from 1986 to 2016, we found that foreign trade is relatively inelastic to prices and non-natural resources revenues in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad. Especially, Marshall-Lerner conditions seems not hold in CEMAC. These results suggest that devaluation should not be appropriate in order to rebalance the external trade of CEMAC countries. Also, imports are heavily inelastic of domestic demand from non-natural resource sector, which illustrates its strategic importance for these economies and the lack of industrial diversification of CEMAC countries

Keywords: Marshall-Lerner conditions; international trade; devaluation; natural resources rent; CEMAC; Bayesian econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F31 O55 Q37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
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