 Forecasting Trade Deflators In IrelandJavier Papa (jpapa@unsam.edu.ar) and Al. Et. MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract: This technical note provides an overview and rationale for recently developed forecast models for Irish export and import prices (trade deflators) in both Merchandise Goods and Services. These forecasts constitute a significant component of the GDP Deflator forecast used in the Department of Finance’s overall macroeconomic forecast, produced for the annual Budget and the Stability Programme Updates. New forecasting models for export and import prices were required due to recent revisions (July 2016) to the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) National Income and Expenditure (NIE) data series. Based on the revised NIE quarterly data for the past 16 years (2000:Q1 – 2016:Q2), new short term forecasts of the trade deflators for Ireland over the period 2016:Q3- 2017:Q4 are presented at the end of this note. The main results show that trade deflator forecasts presented here should be able to predict future export and import prices with a fair degree of accuracy (i.e. within one standard error bands). However, the forecasts quality is conditional on the absence of major turning points in the series, in particular for the Services trade deflators. Keywords: Trade; Deflators, Forecasting, Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:116754 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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