Comparing Econometric Models for Forecasting GDP in Madagascar
Andrianady Josue
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
In this study, we compare the performance of three econometric models ARIMA, VAR, and MIDAS for forecasting the GDP of Madagascar using quarterly data from INSTAT. Our analysis is based on three evaluation metrics : mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Our results indicate that the ARIMA model outperforms the other two models in terms of forecasting accuracy. However, the VAR and MIDAS models also demonstrate competitive performance in certain aspects, highlighting their usefulness in capturing the underlying dynamics of the GDP data.
Keywords: Madagascar; GDP; Forecasting; ARIMA; VAR; MIDAS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C1 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116911/1/MPRA_paper_116911.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:116911
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().