Crunching the Numbers: A Comparison of Econometric Models for GDP Forecasting in Madagascar

Andrianady Josue

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of three popular econometric models ARIMA, MIDAS, and VAR for forecasting quarterly GDP in Madagascar. Our analysis reveals that ARIMA provides the most accurate forecasts among the three models, indicating its superiority in predicting the country’s economic performance. However, we also argue that combining multiple models can offer additional benefits for forecasting accuracy and robustness. By leveraging the strengths of each model, such an approach can provide more reliable forecasts and reduce the risk of errors and biases associated with using a single model. Our findings have important implications for policymakers, economists, and investors who rely on GDP forecasts to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments in Madagascar.

Keywords: GDP; Madagascar; Quarterly data; Forecasting; Arima; Var; Midas. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 C53 E1 E17 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120698/1/MPRA_paper_120698.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:116916

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