The Brexit Impact on Inward FDI in the UK

Haider Ellalee and Walid Y. Alali

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper examines the potential Brexit impact on inward FDI (foreign direct investment) through its potential impact on the variables of the benchmark characterising the macroeconomy. Therefore, we propose to use automatic structural vector regression of Markov system change to distinguish between fluctuating and steady-state states of economics and compute, among others, the contemporary effects that FDI frequency innately generates. Our finds propose that Brexit leads to a depreciation of the pound sterling in the present economic ambience, which will lead to a long-term negative impact on foreign direct investment. The FDI inflows might be affected positively (at most) by the post-Brexit depreciation of the pound sterling only if this circumstance drove the UK economy into a period of inflation, highly volatile growth, interest rates and exchange rates: a rather unlikely scenario. Until then, the benefits of a lower pound sterling will only last for a short time.

Keywords: Brexit; Currency volatility; Economic growth; Inward investment; Markov switching; Structural vector auto-regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E65 F21 F23 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-05-10, Revised 2018-05-20
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117510/1/Haider%20 ... %20FDI%20in%20UK.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:117510

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().