Sectoral and Industrial Business Cycles

Martin Everts ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This article calculates the sectoral and industrial business cycles by means of the band-pass filters by Baxter and King (1999) and Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003), to subsequently analyze the correlations between the sectors and industries and the overall economy. It can be shown that the correlations between the business cycles of the sectors and industries and the overall economy differ strongly. The agriculture sector and the industries mining and quarrying, electricity and education for example exhibit almost no correlation with the overall economy; The wholesale and retail as well as the transport industry on the other hand have a high correlation. By means of an analysis of the leading and lagging correlations it can be shown that the wholesale and retail industry leads the overall economy by two quarters. Thus, the wholesale and retail industry can be used as an indicator for the development of the overall economy.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Correlation; Band-Pass Filter; Sectoral Cycles; Industrial Cycles; Cross-Country Correlation; Monetary Policy; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:1176

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