Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation

Rob Arnold

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation (UC2) is an approach and set of tools that address several issues that are common in risk estimation techniques. Deployed between analysis and modeling, UC2 brings uniformity and interoperability that improve risk model results and improve stakeholder engagement. Its unique features correctly capture confidence and certainty and improve interoperability between data-driven and expert-derived risk estimates and the models that consume them. In turn, UC2 increases uniformity, transparency, and stakeholder engagement, without ripping and replacing existing risk models or analytical workflows.

Keywords: Risk modeling; Risk analysis; Risk estimation; Scales; Confidence; Certainty; Accuracy and Precision; Quantitative; Qualitative; Objective; Subjective; Binomial probability; Probability distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C51 C53 D81 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-08-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118234/1/UC2%20v1.2.pdf original version (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:118234

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