Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la venta de viviendas

Evaluation of forecasting models for house sales

Francisco-Javier Lozano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this working paper is assessing the predictive ability of different econometric models with forecasting windows of 3, 6 and 12 months, in order to improve housing sales forecasts published by the Chilean Chamber of Construction. To do so, five different families of models are estimated, among which Bayesian Vector Autorregresive (BVAR) stands due to a wide acceptance in the last decade. The main result of this paper shows that, in most cases, BVAR models provide more accurate predictions than classical models. This is consistent with the evidence found in several macroeconomic and sectoral applications of this type of models.

Keywords: forecasting; housing; real estate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118652/1/MPRA_paper_118652.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:118652

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().