Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach

Andrianady Josue, Fitiavana M. Randriamifidy, Michel H. P. Ranaivoson and Thierry Miora Steffanie

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This research conducts an in-depth econometric analysis of key economic indicators in Madagascar, with a specific focus on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the USD exchange rate (USD/MGA). Employing the rigorous Box-Jenkins methodology with ARIMAX modeling, we meticulously examine historical trends, model time series data, and provide forecasts for the year 2023. Our analysis notably highlights a projected decline in Madagascar’s GDP for the year 2023, shedding light on the potential repercussions of various factors such as impending presidential elections and ongoing challenges like electricity shortages. These factors have the potential to exert a significant influence on the trajectory of the country’s economy. While ARIMAX models constitute invaluable tools for forecasting, we underscore the necessity of incorporating a more expansive array of econometric methodologies to bolster economic resilience and inform policymaking. This study underscores the critical importance of combining data-driven modeling with a profound understanding of the contextual intricacies that characterize Madagascar’s intricate economic landscape. Moreover, it extends its relevance to other emerging economies facing similar complexities and challenges.

Keywords: Econometrics; ARIMAX modeling; ARIMA modeling; Madagascar; Gross Domestic Product; USD exchange rate; Forecasting; Economic Analysis; Box-Jenkins methodology; Time Series Data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 A10 C1 C5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn
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Related works:
Working Paper: Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:118712

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