Demokratiets vilkårlighed: En analyse af forekomsten af valgparadokser ved tre folketingsvalg

The arbitrariness of democracy: An analysis of the occurrence of voting paradoxes in three Danish parliamentary elections

Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, Emily Duminski and Søren Nikolai Horndrup

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: English: In a democratic system the preferences of individual voters may be aggregated into a collective preference in an infinite number of different ways following which a specific rule will allocate the total number of seats between political parties. If the method produces results that diverge from the underlying preferences of the voters, so-called voting paradoxes may occur. Such are well-known from first-past-the-post/plurality elections (e.g., US and British elections) but it is generally overlooked that such phenomena may also occur under proportional representation. By using data from the Danish National Election Surveys made in connection with the parliamentary elections of 2007, 2011 and 2015 we analyze the possible empirical occurrence of four voting paradoxes identified in social choice theory. We demonstrate that all four voting paradoxes occur empirically, thereby questioning the extent to which the outcomes of parliamentary elections may be seen as being an expression of a meaningful reflection of a ‘will of the people’. Danish: I et demokratisk system kan vælgerpræferencer aggregeres til en samlet kollektiv præference på et utal af forskellige måder, hvorefter en specifik aggregeringsmetode fordeler det samlede antal mandater mellem partierne. Hvis metoden producerer resultater, som divergerer fra vælgernes underliggende præferencer, opstår der såkaldte valgparadokser. De kendes fra flertalsvalgsystemer (f.eks. amerikanske og britiske valg), men det er generelt overset, at de også kan forekomme under forholdstalsvalg. Ved brug af data fra valgundersøgelserne i.f.m. folketingsvalgene 2007, 2011 og 2015 analyseres den mulige empiriske forekomst af fire teoretisk udledte valgparadokser fra social choice teori. Vi viser, at alle fire valgparadokser forekommer empirisk. Dermed sættes der spørgsmålstegn ved, i hvilket omfang folketingsvalgs udfald kan udlægges som en afspejling af folkets vilje.

Keywords: Elections; voting paradoxes; Condorcet; Borda (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D7 D71 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-08
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