Equity Premium in Efficient Markets

Nat Kausik ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Equity premium, the surplus returns of stocks over bonds, has been an enduring puzzle. While numerous prior works approach the problem assuming the utility of money is invariant across contexts, our approach implies that in efficient markets the utility of money is polymorphic, with risk aversion dependent on the information available in each context, i.e. the discount on each future cash flow depends on all information available on that cash flow. Specifically, we prove that in efficient markets, informed investors maximize return on volatility by being risk-neutral with riskless bonds, and risk-averse with equities, thereby resolving the puzzle. We validate our results on historical data with surprising consistency.

Keywords: Equity premium; efficient markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-11-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-upt
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119278/1/MPRA_paper_119278.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119550/1/MPRA_paper_119550.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Equity Premium in Efficient Markets (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:119278

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