Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries

Fatih Chellai

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Keywords: Strategic Food; Food Reserve, Food security, Arab Countries. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 E3 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ara and nep-cis
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