Unraveling the Nexus:Oil Price Dynamics and Inflation

Andrianady Josue, H. Yves Razanajatovo and M. Fabienne Ravelomanantsoa

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This work employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the nexus between macroeconomic variables and inflation in Madagascar. The findings reveal significant impacts of various factors, including imports, GDP, exchange rates, and oil prices, on inflation dynamics. Specifically, the study highlights the substantial influence of oil prices, with a one-unit increase leading to a 9.21 unit rise in inflation. These results underscore the importance of implementing targeted policy measures to address the inflationary pressures arising from volatile oil markets. Strategies such as diversification of imports, energy source diversification, and improvements in public transportation infrastructure are recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of oil price fluctuations and promote economic stability in Madagascar.

Keywords: Inflation; Madagascar; ARDL; Macroeconomic Variables; Oil Prices; Exchange rate; Imports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 C0 C01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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