¿Son confiables las proyecciones del Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado del Banco Central de la República Argentina?

Are the Projections of the Central Bank of the Argentina's Market Expectations Survey reliable?

Luis Frank

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The reliability of the REM as a predictor of key economic variables is evaluated 18 to 1 months before the publication of the final data. It is concluded that REM is not a reliable predictor beyond the 6-9 months prior to the month of publication, in general. This period, however, can be significantly shorter in financial variables. It would be advisable, however, to take these conclusions with caution given that the study covered only 3-8 years of REM's projections, depending on the variable, and one of those years is the one the COVID pandemic.

Keywords: REM; BCRA; market expectations; economic projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C80 C89 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05-31
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