Essaie sur la prévision du taux d’intérêt directeur optimal dans la zone UEMOA: une approche par l’équation de John Brian TAYLOR (1993)

Essay on forecasting the optimal key interest rate in the WAEMU zone: an approach using the equation of John Brian TAYLOR (1993)

J. Damien Agboton

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to model the key interest rate of the WAEMU zone using an approach by John Brian Taylor's equation. The econometric approach used is the Autoregressive Scaled Lag Model (ARDL) and the data used come from the BCEAO statistical table over the period from 1989 to 2019. The results of the study indicate that the key interest rate is more sensitive to the inflation gap than the current output-gap but depends on the past values of the latter at the short tee. In the long term, only the difference between observed inflation and expected inflation influences the tau. of direct interest to the BCEAO. A more rigorous attention on the part of the BCEAO to economic growth should ultimately boost the economy of the countries of the zone.

Keywords: Policy; interest; rate; output; gap; inflation; CBWAS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-06-29
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