Vremenske serije u stalnim cenama i problem prelaska na neoriginalnu baznu godinu

Time Series in Constant Prices and the Problem of Transition to Non-original Base Year

Rajko Bukvić () and Branko Hinić

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Serbian: U radu se razmatra adekvatnost korišćenja vremenskih serija u stalnim cenama iz neke, „bazne”, godine kao „realnih” izraza odgovarajućih (ekonomskih) agregata. Teorijskom analizom pokazano je da na veličine ovih serija utiče ostvarena cenovna struktura iz date godine, što relativizuje ove podatke kao „realne”, i ističe potrebu njihovog iskazivanja i u cenama iz neke druge, neoriginalne bazne, godine. Pošto zvanična statistika to ne pruža, potrebno je njihovo preračunavanje na neoriginalnu bazu. U daljem toku rada razmatra se jedan od postupaka za ovo preračunavanje, zasnovan na prevođenju implicitnih deflatora odgovarajuće serije na vrednosti jednake jedinici u novoj baznoj, godini. Pokazano je da postoji uticaj ostvarene cenovne strukture iz originalne bazne godine i na rezultate ovog preračunavanja. U drugom delu teorijska razmatranja ilustrovana su primerom preračunavanja (na opisani način) serija društvenog proizvoda po jugoslovenskim republikama za period 1961-1973, za koji postoje zvanični statistički podaci iskazani u cenama iz 1966. i 1972. godine, što omogućuje i empirijsku verifikaciju (ne)adekvatnosti razmotrenog postupka preračunavanja. Primer je dao rezultate (preračunate serije) koji značajno odstupaju od originalnih, čime je potvrđeno da je korišćenje serija u stalnim cenama kao „realnih” potrebno u značajnoj meri relativizovati, kao i da razmatrani postupak preračunavanja na neku drugu, „neoriginalnu”, baznu godinu ne može da da dobre rezultate. Na osnovu toga zaključeno je da je nužno da zvanična statistika prati odgovarajuće agregate u cenama iz većeg broja godina, odnosno da prilikom narednog prelaska na novu baznu godinu ne napusti njihovo praćenje i obračunavanje i u cenama iz 1972, kao sadašnje baze za „realno” iskazivanje agregata. English: The paper discusses adequacy of use of time series in constant prices (for any chosen, “basic”, year), as being “real” expression of corresponding (economic) aggregates. Theoretical analysis has resulted in a conclusion, that the series are influenced by the realized price structure for the year chosen, thus relativizing “real” data. In addition to this, the conclusion calls for applying a different approach in expressing prices, i.e. for “non-original" base year. Since official statistical data do not make it possible, it is necessary to recalculate them to non-original basis. Further, a particular procedure of recalculating the data is considered, which is based on transformation of implicit GDP deflators of corresponding time series to value equaling one in new base year. It has also been shown that the results of this recalculation are influenced by the realized price structure too. In the second part of the paper, theoretical discussion is illustrated by an example of recalculating a number of time series for GDPs of Yugoslav republics (for the period 1961-73, on the basis of available official statistical data, in 1966, and 1972, prices), thus making it possible to undertake an empirical test of (un)adequacy of the approach chosen. The example has produced results (a number of recalculated series), which considerably deviate from original series, thus proving that it is necessary to relativize to a considerable degree the use of “real” series in constant prices. Additionally, it has also been proved that neither the alternative way of recalculating the data to some “non-original” base year can produce satisfactory results. Consequently, another important conclusion has been drawn, i.e. that official statistical aggregate data should be simultaneously published for a longer period; additionally, when switching to a new base year, the 1972 base year - now being “real” year for measuring aggregate - should be kept for some time.

Keywords: makroagregati; vremenske serije; stalne cene; baza; preračunavanje; macroaggregates; time series; constant prices; basis; recalculating (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B40 C18 C23 C33 E01 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1992, Revised 1992
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Published in Ekonomska misao 4.25(1992): pp. 411-421

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