Modeling and forecasting US presidential election 2024

Pankaj Sinha, Kaushal Verma, Sumana Biswas, Shashank Tyagi, Shaily Gogia, Aakhyat Singh and Amit Kumar

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Forecasting the vote share for the upcoming US presidential elections involves multiple pivotal economic and non-economic factors. Critical macroeconomic forces such as the rate of economic growth, tax burden, inflation, and unemployment significantly influence the votes gained or lost by the incumbent. However, these are not the only determinants of presidential elections. The study also considers various non-economic factors that directly impact voting behaviour and can enhance prediction accuracy. These non-economic factors include scandals under the incumbent president, existing crime rates, law enforcement, June Gallup ratings reflecting the sitting president's approval, the average Gallup ratings over their term, and the results of the mid-term elections. Additionally, new non-economic factors such as illegal immigration and illegal aliens apprehended can significantly influence the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections. To study the combined effects of economic and non-economic factors, data from each election cycle is used in an empirical model to predict the popular vote share percentage for the Democratic Party in the 2024 elections. The findings suggest that a longer tenure in power, June Gallup ratings, average Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, and economic growth rate significantly impact the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate. The final empirical model predicts that Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, will receive a popular vote share of 48.60% ± 0.1% in the 2024 Presidential Elections of the United States.

Keywords: Linear Regression; Forecasting; Election; Microeconomic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C15 C40 C5 C6 H8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-04, Revised 2024-10-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122319/1/MPRA_paper_122319.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:122319

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().