Потенциал замедления экономики регионов в условиях локализации внешнеэкономической деятельности с КНР

Potential for a slowdown in regional economies in the context of localization of foreign economic activity with China

Leonid Elshin, Almaz Mingulov and Polina Mikhalevich

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional economic systems of the Volga Federal District to restrictions on the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of secondary sanctions on friendly countries implementing foreign economic activities with residents of Russia. The novelty of the study lies in the constructed models for diagnosing the import dependence of the Volga Federal District regions on the gaining momentum of import supplies from the PRC and the assessments of the potential for a slowdown in the economy of the regions of the Volga Federal District implemented on this basis in the context of the predicted localization of import supplies from the People's Republic of China. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the implemented analysis of theoretical approaches and models of regional economic development in the context of determining the optimal settings for integration into the system of world economic relations, as well as in the analysis of the main trends revealing the features of export-import operations in the Russian Federation and its regions (using the example of the subjects of the Volga Federal District) during the period of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the sample of 2022-2024

Keywords: import dependence; sanctions pressure; national economy of the Russian Federation; regions of the Volga Federal District; scenario modeling; gross regional product; risks of sustainable development; economic growth; forecasting; modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-09-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-ure
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