Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria

Oluyemi Okunlola (), Oluwaseun A. Otekunrin, Idowu P. Adewumi and Toyin O. Oguntola

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Interpersonal violence poses a formidable obstacle to harmonious coexistence, socioeconomic development, and public health globally, given its deleterious consequences and attendant mortality. In a multicultural society like Nigeria, violence is an unfortunate inevitability. This study undertakes a spatial analysis and Poisson time trend analysis of violence-related mortality cases in Nigeria, aiming to elucidate the dynamics, assess the public health burden, estimate relative risk, identify hotspots, and inform policy interventions to mitigate violence in severely affected areas. A total of 195,170 cases were recorded between 2006 and 2023, with Borno (46,425), Lagos (12,086), and Kaduna (10,548) accounting for 24%, 6%, and 5% of cases, respectively. In contrast, Ekiti state had the lowest number of cases (752). Notably, death rates in 2014 and 2015 accounted for 12% and 9% of all deaths rates that were attributed to violence during the period considered. The violent death rate showed clear regional differences, with over half of all deaths occurring in the North Central and North East regions. The South East and South West regions contributed 8% and 10% of the remaining share, respectively, while the North West and South South regions contributed 12% and 14%, respectively. These figures show statistically significant socioeconomic and public health differences between the country's northern and southern regions (F = 82.709, P

Keywords: Violence deaths; Poisson; Trend, Spatial analysis; Public health, Violence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02-03
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