 Potential Output in Iran; A Comparison of Alternative Methods, 1978-2008Seyed hossein Mirjalili and Saeed Dehghan Khavari MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract: This paper examines potential output with alternative methods for the period 1978-2008 using annual data of the Iranian economy. We applied Hodrick – Prescott Filter, Production Function and SVAR methods for estimation of annually potential output. The results show that the turning points for these methods look similar and almost produce similar results for output gap. Also the estimated potential output and output gap are conformed to economic and political events as output gap has decreased in war period (1980-1989) because of war expenditures, reducing production and therefore decreasing GDP. Also Iranian economy has been faced with negative output gap and therefore a severe recession because of the crisis in South East Asia in late 1990s. Gap trend is uprising after 2005 for the reason that happening oil shock and economic advancement for increasing oil income. Keywords: Potential output; Output gap; Hodrick-Prescott Filter; Production Function; Structural VAR; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences 48.12(2012): pp. 64-76 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:124179 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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