الناتج القومي ومحدداته الاقتصادية الكلية - GDP and Its Macroeconomics Deteminants

Abdulrahman Abdulrahman, Omar Al-Ghawi and Youssef Al-Ghoul

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study empirically investigates the impact of real interest rate, inflation, net trade, and exchange rate on Egypt's real GDP over the period 1990–2024 using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model. The results reveal that real interest rate and inflation have a statistically significant negative effect on GDP, reflecting the contractionary nature of tight monetary conditions and price instability. The exchange rate shows a positive effect on GDP, suggesting currency depreciation may boost exports. Net trade, surprisingly, exerts a negative effect, highlighting structural imbalances in Egypt’s trade composition. The findings confirm the relevance of traditional macroeconomic frameworks, IS–LM, AD-AS, and Mundell Fleming, while emphasizing the unique features of Egypt’s economy. The study contributes policy-relevant insights to macroeconomic management in developing economies.

Keywords: Real GDP; Macroeconomics; Egypt; Interest Rate; Inflation; Exchange Rate; Net Trade; IS-LM; Mundell-Fleming; AD-AS; OLS Regression; Developing Economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 C32 C4 C41 C5 C8 C82 C87 E2 E22 E4 E6 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-15
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