GARCH-FX: A Modular Framework for Stochastic and Regime-Aware GARCH Forecasting

Nitin Tony Paul

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Traditional GARCH models, while robust, are deterministic and their long-horizon forecasts converge to a static mean, failing to capture the dynamic nature of real markets. Conversely, classical stochastic volatility models often introduce significant implementation and calibration complexity. This paper introduces GARCH-FX (GARCH Forecasting eXtension), a novel and accessible framework that augments the classic GARCH model to generate realistic, stochastic volatility paths without this prohibitive complexity. GARCH-FX is built upon the core strength of GARCH—its ability to estimate long-run variance—but replaces the deterministic multi-step forecast with a stochastic simulation engine. It injects controlled randomness through a Gamma-distributed process, ensuring the forecast path is non-smooth and jagged. Furthermore, it incorporates a modular regime-switching multiplier, providing a flexible interface to inject external views or systematic signals into the forecast’s mean level. The result is a powerful and intuitive framework for generating dynamic long-term volatility scenarios. By separating the drivers of mean-level shifts from local stochastic behavior, GARCHFX aims to provide a practical tool for applications requiring realistic market simulations, such as stress-testing, risk analysis, and synthetic data generation.

Keywords: Stochastic Volatility Forecasting; GARCH Extensions; Regime-Switching Volatility; Gamma-Distributed; Volatility; Volatility Forecast Uncertainty; Nonlinear GARCH Models; Stochastic Vol Forecast; Financial Time Series; Heteroskedasticity Dynamics; Gamma Noise in Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 C6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07-10
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