کاربرد نظریه اقتصاد ساختاری جدید در توسعه اقتصادی ایران در قالب چارچوب GIF جهت تعیین بخش های پیشران

Application of the New Structural Economics to Iranian Eoconmic Development within the Framework of Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) for Determination of the Leading Sectors

Seyed Hossein Mirjalili, Saeed Dehghan Khavari and Farshad Momeni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The new structural economics attempts to reconstruct the path of successful countries so as for it to be practical and achievable for other developing countries. The framework of GIF is offered here for this purpose. To apply this framework for Iranian economic development, the economic structure of the country is studied from the new structural economic perspective. The results show a distance of Iran from the optimal structure in successful countries. In this regard, Iran can move to reforms by benchmarking those countries. In the next step of the study, China, India, Indonesia and Turkey are selected as the criteria for comparisons. Then, through studying their exports and active sectors over a period of 19 years, their leading sectors are identified. As many as 25 leading goods groups are achieved for those countries, of which 14 are selected as first-priority and 11 as high-tech goods groups for foreign investment to participate in the next stages of industrial upgrading according to Iranian level of technology and advantages. Studies show the status of these 25 goods groups in Iranian exports is inappropriate so that their total share in exports is 7.7 percent, while the rate for China, India, Indonesia and Turkey is 30, 43, 19 and 41 percent respectively. Also, as another GIF steps, an analysis is performed of the import structure and the domestic sectors that are active in this regard.

Keywords: Economic development; New structural economics; Leader-follower model; Economic growth; Iranian economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N60 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-02, Revised 2017-07
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Published in Journal of Economic Policy 17.9(2017): pp. 233-268

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