Heterogeneous Effects of Fiscal Rules Under the Maastricht Fiscal Criterion: Budget Fiscal Deficit and Debt Sustainability Analysis

Denis Vîntu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We contend that ambivalence or uncertainty regarding the error terms may be the root cause of many methodological misunderstandings in time-series econometrics. Macroeconomic time series have imprecise relationships, and early econometricians invariably discovered that any estimated relationship would only fit with errors. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. We have interpreted the term error from the perspective of 7 macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (error, pension), Inflation Rate (error, wage and salary,) Interest Rate (error, unemployment) Unemployment Rate (error inflation rate), Budget Fiscal Deficit (error, ra-gap vat gap estimation), Public Debt (ra-gap vat gap estimation) and Exchange Rate (error, gross domestic product).

Keywords: error term; time-series; dynamic models; simultaneous-equations models; interpretation; econometrics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C15 C22 C30 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10, Revised 2024-10
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Published in National Institute of Economic Research Conference 2024/10.10(2024): pp. 1-21

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