Choc exogène et stabilité macroéconomique

Exogenous shock and macroeconomic stability

Christ Kahembwe

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic stability of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting the country's high vulnerability due to its overreliance on mineral exports and limited economic diversification. Using a multi-sectoral econometric approach, the study reveals that external shocks such as global crises, pandemics, and commodity price fluctuations result in prolonged economic adjustments up to eight years. Key sectors like monetary aggregates and banking profitability are highly sensitive to international conditions, whereas public debt, largely concessional, shows limited responsiveness. The paper calls for ambitious structural reforms, including economic diversification, counter-cyclical policies, improved management of mining revenues, investment in human capital, and stronger governance to address institutional weaknesses and enhance the DRC’s economic resilience

Keywords: Exogenous shocks; Macroeconomic stability; Economic diversification; Commodity dependence (mineral exports); Structural reforms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 F44 H63 O55 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04-28
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:126330

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