L’impact des tensions géopolitiques et les trajectoires divergentes des politiques monétaires

The impact of geopolitical tensions and the divergent paths of monetary policies

Esdras Auga

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions on central bank monetary Policy responses over the period 2010-2024. Using an econometric Framework, the study reveals That such tensions exert both upward and downward pressures on Policy rates, as central Banks react to external shocks in a context of increasing global uncertainty. These responses are interpreted either as preventive measures against inflationary risks or as cautious signaling amid volatility. Howerver, the results highlight a significant heterogeneity in monetary Policy reactions across countries, reflecting divergent trajectories shaped by distinct institutional, economic, and political Framework. White the explanatory power of the model remains moderate, the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and international institutions facing an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.

Keywords: Geopolitical tensions; divergent trajectories; monetary policy; external shocks; rising uncertainty; the global economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E52 E58 F44 F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
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